کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
896920 | 914867 | 2011 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Is diversity in Delphi panelist groups useful? Evidence from a French forecasting exercise on the future of nuclear energy Is diversity in Delphi panelist groups useful? Evidence from a French forecasting exercise on the future of nuclear energy](/preview/png/896920.png)
This paper further enhances the analytical power of Delphi methodology by identifying the advantages, disadvantages and challenges presented by increasing diversity among panel groups. Using Delphi survey data on the future of nuclear energy in France, we analyze the origins of the variety of judgments within and between two panels: one of experts and one of laypeople. We investigate the determinants of the stability of those opinions both in one given round and over several rounds of opinion-formation. We reach an apparently paradoxical conclusion: that non-expert judgment is less stable, but not necessarily less accurate, than that of experts, judgments on the part of experts sometimes being clouded by self-interest. Apart from highlighting some factors underlying the controversy over nuclear power, our paper calls for greater participatory democracy in Delphi panels, but also demonstrates the limits of such an extension.
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change - Volume 78, Issue 9, November 2011, Pages 1642–1653