The future of mobile shopping: The interaction between lead users and technological trajectories in the Japanese market

This paper uses the concepts of lead users and technological trajectories and the current status of mobile shopping in Japan to forecast the future of mobile shopping. In interviews with more than 100 Japanese and foreign firms between 2000 and 2005, the author investigated the impact of a number of technological trajectories on mobile shopping applications that are suggested to be promising ones based on the behavior of lead users. Push-based Internet mail and other key services that are not yet available in Western markets were the initial drivers of the market for mobile shopping in Japan between 2001 and 2003. Currently, the fastest growing market for mobile shopping in Japan involves the integration of mobile sites with other media such as magazines and radio and television programs where these other media compensate for the small screens of mobile phones. This paper forecasts the impact of improvements along a number of technological trajectories on the integration of mobile sites with other media.