Adolescent alcohol use trajectories: Predictors and subsequent problems

This study aimed at identifying different alcohol drinking trajectories in early to late adolescence. We also examined whether certain factors predicted membership of a specific trajectory and to what extent trajectory membership was linked to later negative consequences. Data were drawn from a longitudinal cohort study starting with 1923 adolescents including all seventh grade students in six school districts in Stockholm, Sweden 2001 (age 14), with follow-up in 2002, 2003, and 2006 (age 19). Cluster- and multinomial logistic regression analyses revealed four developmental pathways: low, gradually increasing, high, and suddenly increasing consumption. “High consumers” and “sudden increasers” reported higher levels of alcohol consumption, heavy episodic drinking, and alcohol-related problems both at age 14–16 and at age 19. The “gradual increasers” were more likely to smoke cigarettes, have easy access to alcohol, visit youth recreation centres, have friends who drink, and report a poorer health, compared to the “low consumer/abstainer group”. “High consumers” were more likely to have drinking peers than both “low consumers/abstainers” and “gradual increasers”.