Can transtheoretical model measures predict relapse from the action stage of change among ex-smokers who quit after calling a quitline?

This study explored whether transtheoretical model (TTM) measures could predict relapse from the action stage, i.e., during the first 6 months of smoking cessation. Predictors of relapse were examined between time 2 (3-month) and time 3 (6-month) assessments (n = 247), and also between time 3 (6-month) and time 4 (12-month) assessments (n = 204). Consistent predictors of relapse included lower self-efficacy and determination to quit and higher temptations to smoke. Some predictors of relapse changed according to how long a person had already been quit for. Contrary to the TTM, greater behavioral change process use predicted relapse among people who had already quit for less than a month, and did not prevent relapse among those who had already quit for a month or more between time 2 and time 3. Cross-sectional analyses showed significant decreases in temptations to smoke and in the use of some of the change processes, which stabilised at about 1 month post-cessation. The findings suggest that there may be a stage boundary at around 1 month post-cessation, and question the homogeneity, and hence validity, of the TTM-defined action stage of change.