Cognitive processes of numerical estimation in children

We tested children in Grades 1 to 5, as well as college students, on a number line estimation task and examined latencies and errors to explore the cognitive processes involved in estimation. The developmental trends in estimation were more consistent with the hypothesized shift from logarithmic to linear representation than with an account based on a proportional judgment application of a power function model; increased linear responding across ages, as predicted by the log-to-lin shift position, yielded reasonable developmental patterns, whereas values derived from the cyclical power model were difficult to reconcile with expected developmental patterns. Neither theoretical position predicted the marked “M-shaped” pattern that was observed, beginning in third graders’ errors and fourth graders’ latencies. This pattern suggests that estimation comes to rely on a midpoint strategy based on children’s growing number knowledge (i.e., knowledge that 50 is half of 100). As found elsewhere, strength of linear responding correlated significantly with children’s performance on standardized math tests.

► Children in grades 1–5 (and adults) estimated values on number lines.
► By third grade, children began to rely on the midpoint to make estimates.
► Error and latency patterns supported the hypothesis of a midpoint strategy.
► The developmental changes favored the log-to-lin shift model.
► Linear responders had higher math achievement scores than exponential responders.