The impact of rural out-migration on land use transition in China: Past, present and trend

• We combine Zelinsky's hypothesis of the mobility transition model and land use transition theory to explore land use change.
• We examine changes in rural out-migration and land use in China from a transition perspective.
• Land use transition in China has unique characters, such as hollowed villages, because of institutional environment.
• Deal with the food–environment-development trilemma, policies should consider the impact of rural out-migration on land use transition.

Although rural out-migration has significantly transformed land use at the local to regional scale, the links between rural out-migration and land use change are not well understood. This paper connects Zelinsky's mobility transition model to land use transition theory and identifies the impacts of rural out-migration on land use transition. It then explores the significant influences of rural out-migration on land use transition in China. Since the introduction of economic reforms in 1978, China has undergone rapid and significant changes. Extensive rural out-migration has transformed China from a land-attached agricultural society to an urban and industrial society. This has produced several contrasting land use trends: increased land demand in urban areas at the expense of high-quality cultivated land, increased number of total settlement areas and emerging “hollowed villages” in the countryside. China's policies addressing these problems could benefit to other developing countries, such as restricting frontier clearing through land zoning and other ecological protection policies; encouraging nonmigrants to adjust their agricultural land holdings; protecting nonmigrants’ interest through subsidizing agricultural land, and improving rural infrastructure and farmers’ living conditions. Rural out-migration is thus a critical element in addressing the fundamental question of land use—how to balance the land demand for economic development, food security and conservation. This article explores the impacts of rural out-migration on land use change, analyzes the process of migration and land use transition and then examines how rural out-migration affects land use transition in China. This paper also explores future land use change in China, by considering the trend of rural–urban migration and the dynamics of population transition. In so doing, we try to link current rural out-migration dynamics and land use change to facilitate future research and policy considerations. We propose that in order to facilitate policymaking, further research should take a multiscale perspective: cross-country research should be based on an understanding of the dynamics and issues of rural out-migration and land use change in developing countries with different characteristics; country-level research should focus on land use change and problems caused by rural out-migration and its spatial characteristics; and community and household-level research should examine the effects of out-migration of household or household members on agricultural and other land use change.