Developing grain production policy in terms of multiple cropping systems in China

• Multiple cropping systems of China has been described by four indicators: MCI, PMCI, MCE and PIMCI.
• Identifies regional barriers blocking the use of multiple cropping by zoning impact factors.
• Promotes region orientated and region prioritization strategy for increasing grain production.

Multiple cropping is one of the simplest ways to increase grain production, and it has an important role in the food security of China. This paper evaluates the multiple cropping systems of China, and identifies the regional obstacles that limit the use of multiple cropping with the aim to give some implications for developing grain production policy. A time series analysis of remote sensing data coupled with an econometrics model—stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) was used to derive the multiple cropping index (MCI), potential multiple cropping index (PMCI), multiple cropping efficiency (MCE), and potential increment of multiple cropping index (PIMCI) to evaluate the multiple cropping systems. Regional obstacles to the use of multiple cropping were identified by zoning socioeconomic and ecological environmental factors that impact its application. The MCE of China in 2005 was 87.5%, with a gap of 22% between the MCI and the PMCI. The Bohai Rim, the rim of Tianshan Mountain, the Sichuan Basin, and the middle reach of Yangtze River are the main regions that larger PIMCI could be anticipated. The whole country (excluding areas that lacked data) was divided into seven distinct regions in terms of the impact factors and further classified into low-efficiency high-potential regions (LHRs), high-efficiency low-potential regions (HLRs), high-efficiency medium-potential regions (HMRs), and medium-efficiency high-potential regions (MHRs) according to regional multiple cropping performance. Considering about the obstacles and benefits to each region, different strategies should be implemented to different regions for regional grain production increase. Special attention should be paid to the improvement of MCE in north and southwest China with the expectation to increase grain production of China. The results would help implement “The plan to increase grain production capacity by 50 million tons nationwide” launched by the central government of China.