Conservation of undisturbed natural forests and economic impacts on agriculture

Conservation of undisturbed natural forests, which are important for biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services, affects agricultural production and cropland expansion. We analyze the economic impacts of undisturbed natural forest conservation programs on agriculture and the magnitude of avoided deforestation and avoided carbon emissions in the tropics. We apply a global agricultural land use model to estimate changes in agricultural production costs for the period 2015–2055. Our forest conservation scenarios reflect two different policy goals: either maximize forest carbon storage or minimize impacts on agricultural production. In all the scenarios, the economic impacts on agriculture are relatively low. Production costs would increase due to forest conservation by a maximum of 4%, predominantly driven by increased investments in agricultural productivity increase. We also show regional differences in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia, due to different growth rates in food demand, land availability and crop productivity. The area of avoided deforestation does not exceed 1.5 million ha yr−1 in the period 2015–2055, while avoided carbon emissions reach a maximum of 1.9 Gt CO2 per year. According to our results on the potential changes in agricultural production costs, undisturbed natural forest conservation appears to be a low-cost option for greenhouse gas emission reduction.

► The economic impacts of prioritized forest conservation on agriculture are modeled.
► Low opportunity costs are result of technical change and leakage into other land.
► In Africa, high demand change and leakage make large-scale conservation unlikely.
► In Latin America, carbon-prioritized conservation is economically favorable.
► Yield increase is required in all regions to make large-scale conservation feasible.