کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
9469613 | 1319047 | 2005 | 14 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modeling polio as a disease of development
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
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چکیده انگلیسی
Poliomyelitis is a disease which began to appear in epidemic proportions in the late 19th century, paradoxically, just at the time when living conditions and developments in health were transforming enormously for the better. We present a simple age-class model that explains this “disease of development” as a threshold phenomenon. Epidemics arise when improved conditions in hygiene are able to reduce disease transmission of polio amongst children below a critical threshold level. This generates a large susceptible adult population in which, under appropriate conditions, epidemics can propagate. The polio model is analysed in terms of its bifurcation properties and in terms of its non-equilibrium outbreak dynamics.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Volume 237, Issue 3, 7 December 2005, Pages 302-315
Journal: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Volume 237, Issue 3, 7 December 2005, Pages 302-315
نویسندگان
Svetlana Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky, Lewi Stone,