کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
9469895 | 1319071 | 2005 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
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چکیده انگلیسی
Many infectious diseases spread through populations via the networks formed by physical contacts among individuals. The patterns of these contacts tend to be highly heterogeneous. Traditional “compartmental” modeling in epidemiology, however, assumes that population groups are fully mixed, that is, every individual has an equal chance of spreading the disease to every other. Applications of compartmental models to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) resulted in estimates of the fundamental quantity called the basic reproductive number R0-the number of new cases of SARS resulting from a single initial case-above one, implying that, without public health intervention, most outbreaks should spark large-scale epidemics. Here we compare these predictions to the early epidemiology of SARS. We apply the methods of contact network epidemiology to illustrate that for a single value of R0, any two outbreaks, even in the same setting, may have very different epidemiological outcomes. We offer quantitative insight into the heterogeneity of SARS outbreaks worldwide, and illustrate the utility of this approach for assessing public health strategies.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Volume 232, Issue 1, 7 January 2005, Pages 71-81
Journal: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Volume 232, Issue 1, 7 January 2005, Pages 71-81
نویسندگان
Lauren Ancel Meyers, Babak Pourbohloul, M.E.J. Newman, Danuta M. Skowronski, Robert C. Brunham,