Bioeconomic modelling and risk assessment of the Cuban fishery for spiny lobster Panulirus argus

Spiny lobster (Panulirus argus), the most valuable fishery resource in Cuba, is subject to a state property regime and to a limited-access system. Managers need to be advised on the consequences of choosing different methods for managing the fishery. An age-structured bioeconomic model was developed to simulate the population dynamics of the stock allowing short-term and long-term (equilibrium) predictions on catch, biomass, egg production, revenue, cost and profit, due to changes in the fishing effort. The equilibrium version of the model can be used to estimate a number of bioeconomic reference points, such as the fishing effort for the maximum sustainable yield per recruit, or the maximum economic yield per recruit. The stochastic and dynamic version can be used to assess every year the risk of exceeding common benchmarks used in fishery management, taking into account uncertainty in parameters, such as catchability and recruitment. It was found that the recruitment has decreased since 1988 and that the effort should be limited at the level of maximum economic yield.