Economic and welfare impacts of commercializing a herbicide-tolerant, biotech wheat

A transgenic variety of spring wheat was proposed for deregulation in North America in 2002. (More recently, the developer shelved this plan.) In this paper, a quantitative model is used to analyze the possible economic impact of commercializing a crop for which there may be sizable consumer resistance. At issue is whether, and under what conditions, the economic benefits from biotech wheat could be outweighed by economic costs. The analysis also addresses the distribution of costs and benefits among stakeholders: producers, consumers, and US taxpayers. Specific attention is given to the impacts on consumers in non-biotech and biotech market segments, and those in the United States and foreign countries. Under base-case assumptions, the analysis suggests that commercialization of biotech wheat could lead to a small net loss of total economic welfare. Results depend critically on several model parameters: the rate of biotech adoption; unit cost savings for biotech producers; the share of the non-biotech market segment; and extra costs associated with a 'dual marketing system' for wheat.