The diffusion of the Internet: Trend and causes

Over the last two decades, the Internet has changed various facets of social life, creating many social concerns. To better assess the impact of the Internet, it is important to understand the pattern of its diffusion. Using the Current Population Survey, this paper examines the diffusion process of the Internet between 1994 and 2007. The CPS provides seven cross-sectional data sets on Internet use over the period, four of which are spaced close enough to be turned into panel data sets. Simple trend analyses show that a logistic S-curve fits the seven observations very well, and that the diffusion took off around the time when the graphical user interface was introduced. Findings from multivariate trend analyses and panel data analyses include; (1) the digital divide is not likely to be closed in the near future, (2) exposure to the technology at school and workplace are important factors of initial and continued use of the Internet, and (3) of different online activities, email use is the most important predictor of continued use, implying that the diffusion process is highly social, rather than individualistic.