National security issues and US presidential elections, 1992–2008

Have the 2001 terrorist attacks and two wars continued to affect the partisan salience of national security issues in US elections? Was the impact of these issues in 2008 overshadowed by renewed focus on the part of voters to domestic conditions and policy issues? This study addresses these questions using recently-released data from the National Election Studies. Building from scholarship on the partisan politics of national security, we seek to incorporate two competing theoretical perspectives on these issues. We consider the 2008 contest in conjunction with the four elections that preceded it to take into account the impact of recent historical events and evaluate key hypotheses. The analysis offers new findings regarding the over-time pattern of influence of national security conflicts on voter choice. We find evidence for the importance of national security issues in the 2008 election, alongside established sources of voter preferences. Implications for theory and research are discussed in conclusion.