Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in investment

This study examines the Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in both business and residential investment for 1983–2004 and reaches four main conclusions: First, in support of the asymmetric information hypothesis, the shorter (longer) horizon Federal Reserve forecasts of growth in business (residential) investment contain useful predictive information beyond that included in private forecasts. Second, the Federal Reserve forecasts are all biased. The same is true for the private forecasts of growth in residential (but not entirely for the forecasts of growth in business) investment. Third, the private forecasts overall do better than those of the Federal Reserve in outperforming the univariate forecasts. Fourth, the Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in business (residential) investment, while directionally accurate, imply symmetric (asymmetric) loss. We conclude this study by discussing the usefulness of these forecasts.