کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
960188 | 929419 | 2013 | 20 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
حسابداری
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns](/preview/png/960188.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
Using a novel measure of industry exposure to government spending, we show predictable variation in cash flows and stock returns over political cycles. During Democratic presidencies, firms with high government exposure experience higher cash flows and stock returns, while the opposite pattern holds true during Republican presidencies. Business cycles, firm characteristics, and standard risk factors do not account for the pattern in returns across presidencies. An investment strategy that exploits the presidential cycle predictability generates abnormal returns as large as 6.9% per annum. Our results suggest market underreaction to predictable variation in the effect of government spending policies.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Financial Economics - Volume 107, Issue 2, February 2013, Pages 305–324
Journal: Journal of Financial Economics - Volume 107, Issue 2, February 2013, Pages 305–324
نویسندگان
Frederico Belo, Vito D. Gala, Jun Li,