کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
961653 929890 2008 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Incorporating model uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis: A Bayesian model averaging approach
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم پزشکی و سلامت پزشکی و دندانپزشکی سیاست های بهداشت و سلامت عمومی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Incorporating model uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis: A Bayesian model averaging approach
چکیده انگلیسی
Recently, several authors have proposed the use of linear regression models in cost-effectiveness analysis. In this paper, by modelling costs and outcomes using patient and Health Centre covariates, we seek to identify the part of the cost or outcome difference that is not attributable to the treatment itself, but to the patients' condition or to characteristics of the Centres. Selection of the covariates to be included as predictors of effectiveness and cost is usually assumed by the researcher. This behaviour ignores the uncertainty associated with model selection and leads to underestimation of the uncertainty about quantities of interest. We propose the use of Bayesian model averaging as a mechanism to account for such uncertainty about the model. Data from a clinical trial are used to analyze the effect of incorporating model uncertainty, by comparing two highly active antiretroviral treatments applied to asymptomatic HIV patients. The joint posterior density of incremental effectiveness and cost and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves are proposed as decision-making measures.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Health Economics - Volume 27, Issue 5, September 2008, Pages 1250-1259
نویسندگان
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