کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
963530 1479125 2010 23 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The role of trading volume in volatility forecasting
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
The role of trading volume in volatility forecasting
چکیده انگلیسی
Current models of volatility generally either use historical returns or option implied volatility to generate forecasts. Motivated by recent findings in the strand of literature focusing on volume-return (price) volatility relationships, this paper proposes the introduction of trading volume into various ARCH frameworks to improve forecasts. In particular, ex-ante evidence indicates that the incorporation of option implied volatility and trading volume into an EGARCH model leads to outperformance over other alternate forecast approaches. Noticeably, abnormal returns obtained from trading simulation underscores the improvement in forecast accuracy to be economically significant. These results remain robust to different measures of volatility and volume and offers scope for investors to more accurately predict volatility in the future.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money - Volume 20, Issue 5, December 2010, Pages 533-555
نویسندگان
, ,