Business groups, foreign direct investment, and capital goods trade: The import behavior of Japanese affiliates

We examine the impact of buyer–supplier relationships within business groups on capital goods trade by taking into account potential simultaneous effects of business group ties on foreign direct investment. We posit that (1) foreign affiliates of business group firms have a greater propensity to import capital goods from the home country, increasing home country exports; (2) if the establishment of overseas affiliates by business group firms attracts foreign direct investment by their capital goods suppliers, business group ties are localized and the ‘trade creating’ impact of business group ties may disappear or even be reversed. Empirical analysis of capital goods imports by 1790 manufacturing affiliates operated abroad by Japanese multinational firms, combined with information on linkages with machinery suppliers within horizontal and vertical business groups, provides broad support for these predictions. Our findings suggest that it may be incorrect to infer from the absence of a simple relationship between business group ties and trade that such ties are unimportant; instead, intra-group ties may be replicated abroad through foreign direct investment.

► We analyze effects of buyer–supplier relationships within business groups on trade.
► We model foreign affiliate imports, given group membership and foreign investment by suppliers.
► We find that foreign affiliates of business group firms import more capital goods from Japan.
► However, this effect is neutralized if group suppliers also engage in foreign investment abroad.
► The replication of buyer–supplier linkages abroad through FDI renders trade effects ambiguous.