The determinants and consequences of IPOs in a regulated economy: Evidence from China

Using a sample of 156 monthly returns over the period of 1996–2008, we find a positive relation between the monthly issuing size and prior market returns, suggesting that the government decides the timing and the size of issuances based on prior market conditions. Different from previous findings, our study finds no evidence of decline in subsequent market returns after initial public offerings (IPOs). However, IPO issuance has a significantly negative impact on the return momentum effect, whereas the degree of impact is indifferent to the issuing size. We conclude that the overall mild impact on the subsequent market results from the government's regulation of the IPO market.

► We study the determinants and consequences of CSRC's regulation of the IPO market.
► We find a positive relation between monthly issuing size and prior market returns.
► Our study finds no evidence of decline in subsequent market returns after IPOs.
► IPO issuance has a significantly negative impact on the return momentum effect.
► An overall mild impact on subsequent market is documented.