Does stage-of-change predict dropout in a culturally diverse sample of adolescents admitted to inpatient substance-abuse treatment? A test of the Transtheoretical Model

The Transtheoretical Model (TTM) (Prochaska, Diclemente, & Norcross, 1992) proposes that the stages-of-change construct can serve as useful tool for identifying those most at-risk of treatment dropout [Prochaska, J. O. (1999). How do people change, and how can we change to help many more people? In M. A. Hubble, B. L. Duncan, & S. D. Miller (Eds.), The heart and soul of change (pp. 227-255). Washington: American Psychological Association]. While researchers have found mixed support for this claim in adult samples, studies have not yet tested this issue in adolescent substance-abuse treatment settings. This paper reports findings from a Canadian study of adolescents (n = 130: 80 Caucasians, 50 Aboriginals) admitted to a hospital-based, residential substance-abuse treatment program. Two approaches were used to test the TTM's claim: (1) a hierarchical logistic regression model of dropout was developed using the subscales of the University of Rhode Island Change Assessment instrument (URICA), demographic variables, and subscales of the Addiction Severity Index (ASI); and (2) a chi-square analysis was employed to test the hypothesized relation between stage-of-change and dropout status. The findings demonstrated that the best predictive model of dropout included only the Precontemplation subscale of the URICA (OR: 4.3; 95% CI: 2.0-9.0). In addition, adolescents assigned to the Precontemplation stage manifested significantly higher rates of treatment attrition than individuals in the Contemplation or Preparation/Action stages. This study provides important empirical support for the predictive utility of the stage-of-change construct among a culturally diverse sample of adolescents admitted to an inpatient substance-abuse treatment program.