کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
9732580 | 1481482 | 2005 | 14 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Value Line and I/B/E/S earnings forecasts
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
This paper compares Value Line and Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/B/E/S) analysts' earnings forecasts. Comparing the accuracy of forecasts of a single forecaster (Value Line) to consensus forecasts (I/B/E/S) offers a powerful test of the aggregation principle. Philbrick and Ricks [J. Acc. Res. 29 (1991) 397] conducted a similar study, but found no evidence that aggregation matters. Using more recent data, we reach different conclusions, finding that I/B/E/S earnings forecasts outperform Value Line significantly in terms of accuracy and as proxies for market expectations. I/B/E/S forecasting superiority is largely explained by its timing advantage and the aggregation principle. However, when we build an I/B/E/S consensus using forecasts from the I/B/E/S detail files of individual analyst forecasts, we find that some of its forecasting superiority remains after controlling for these advantages.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 21, Issue 1, JanuaryâMarch 2005, Pages 185-198
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 21, Issue 1, JanuaryâMarch 2005, Pages 185-198
نویسندگان
Sundaresh Ramnath, Steve Rock, Philip Shane,