کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
973515 1479863 2014 22 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Predicting future price volatility: Empirical evidence from an emerging limit order market
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
پیش بینی نوسان قیمت در آینده: شواهد تجربی از یک بازار نظم محدود در حال ظهور
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی


• Informativeness of limit order book (LOB) for predicting stock price volatility
• LOB supply schedule significantly predicts the future price volatility.
• Predictive power of LOB declines during the extreme market wide movements.
• Buy orders are more informative over future price volatility than sell orders.
• Sell (buy) orders are more informative during extreme market wide down (up) days.

We investigate the information content of the limit order book (LOB) on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE), a purely order-driven market. We find strong evidence that the LOB slope consistently and significantly predicts the future price volatility. However, this predictive power of the LOB declines during extreme market-wide movements. We also find that buy orders are more informative for future price volatility than sell orders, but sell (buy) orders become more informative during extreme market-wide down (up) movement days. Finally, we document that the predictive power of the LOB is short lived and markets are efficient over the longer time horizon. These results are helpful in understanding market efficiency and the traders' order submission strategies on the fast growing market of SHSE.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Pacific-Basin Finance Journal - Volume 27, April 2014, Pages 72–93
نویسندگان
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