Recent trends in heroin supply to markets in Australia, the United States and Western Europe

Heroin causes its users and the community a disproportionate amount of harm, and evidence suggests that heroin markets have increased in scale over recent decades. Most of the world's heroin is produced in South West (SW) Asia (Afghanistan in particular) and South East (SE) Asia (especially Myanmar), with a much smaller proportion produced in South America. The ban on opium production in Afghanistan in 2000 resulted in a substantial decrease in global opium production for the following year and a sharp increase in the wholesale price of opium in Afghanistan. The current paper examines the price of wholesale and retail heroin in the context of general heroin market conditions in Western Europe, the United States and Australia over the time that this reduction in opium supply occurred. Little evidence was found of a price shift in these three heroin markets as a consequence of the decrease in opium production in Afghanistan. There was no consequent shift in the overall price of heroin in either Europe or the United States. Although Australia did experience dramatic disruption to its heroin supply in 2001, and a large increase in the price of heroin, this change was not directly attributable to the reduction in opium production in Afghanistan. Australian heroin markets are supplied predominantly by SE Asia and the shortage of heroin and consequent price rise was related to regional drug supply factors including local law enforcement activities. In conclusion, the drastic reduction in global opium production witnessed in 2000 did not directly impact on the prices of heroin in these three established heroin markets. This observation highlights the complexity of factors influencing drug prices in destination heroin markets and suggests caution in anticipating clear retail level impacts following changes in drug production.