Intra-industry effects of completed and cancelled cross border acquisitions in Australia: A test of the acquisition probability hypothesis

Globalization has led to an increase in cross-border mergers and acquisitions in recent years. Australian firms have featured prominently as acquisition targets in the latest merger wave. Cross-border acquisitions significantly affect industry dynamics and competitive balance. We investigate the intra-industry effects of cross-border acquisition of Australian firms and find, among others, that the target firms' rivals realized significantly positive abnormal returns following both the acquisition proposal and termination announcements. We relate our results to competing hypotheses and find evidence consistent with the acquisition probability hypothesis. Interestingly, we find that the abnormal returns earned by the rival firms at the time of the termination of the acquisition involving their industry counterparts were greater than the returns earned at the time of the acquisition proposal announcement. These results are consistent with the assertion that the likelihood of acquisition of the rival firms increases following the termination of the initial acquisition proposal involving their industry counterparts.