New proposal of reactivity coefficient estimation method using a gray-box model in nuclear power plants

A new method for estimating reactivity parameters, such as moderator temperature coefficient (MTC) and void reactivity coefficient (VRC), is proposed using steady-state noise data. In order to solve the ill-posed problem of reactivity parameter estimation, a concept of a gray box model is newly introduced. The gray box model includes a first principle based model and a black-box fitting model. The former model acts as a priori knowledge based constraints in a parameter estimation problem. After establishing the gray box and noise source models, the maximum likelihood estimation method based on Kalman filter is applied. Furthermore, it is shown that the frequency domain approach of the gray box model is useful in the case of VRC estimation. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithms is shown through numerical simulation and actual plant data analysis.