کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
987256 | 1480926 | 2006 | 15 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long-term interest rates
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long-term interest rates An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long-term interest rates](/preview/png/987256.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
This paper evaluates the multiperiod forecasts of Moody's Aaa corporate and the 10-year Treasury bond rates from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We show that the SPF forecasts are not rational since they fail to be unbiased and, in some cases, do not fully incorporate the information in the past actual rates. These forecasts, however, are useful, since they are able to accurately predict the direction of change in the actual series. We also formulate a model that utilizes the information in the SPF forecasts of the unemployment rate. Comparable four-quarter-ahead forecasts of the two interest rates from this model are shown to be significantly more accurate than the corresponding SPF forecasts for 2001.1-2004.4.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Review of Financial Economics - Volume 15, Issue 2, 2006, Pages 177-191
Journal: Review of Financial Economics - Volume 15, Issue 2, 2006, Pages 177-191
نویسندگان
Hamid Baghestani,