Birth cohort effect on lung cancer incidence in Taiwanese women 1981-1998

Lung cancer has been the main cause of cancer-related mortality in Taiwanese women since 1986. Gradual increases in both awareness of risks and use of extractor fans in kitchens should reduce the incidence of this disease. To investigate the birth cohort effect on lung cancer incidence in Taiwanese women for 1981-1998, an age-period-cohort (APC) model analysis was employed to study the effects of age, time periods, birth cohorts and histological types of lung cancer. A significant increase in lung cancer incidence among women was found for the period 1981-1998 (r = 0.96, P < 0.05), principally of adenocarcinoma, then squamous cell carcinoma. Age is the strongest predictor according to the APC model. The birth cohort of 1917-1926 has the highest risk of lung cancer. However, in recent cohorts, particularly those born after 1956, the incidence has fallen. The declining incidence in younger cohorts may be due to the increased use of extractor fans in kitchens reducing exposure to carcinogenic fumes from cooking oil.