کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
992782 | 1481214 | 2009 | 29 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Judgmental Forecasting in the Dry Bulk Shipping Business: Statistical vs. Judgmental Approach
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و مالیه (عمومی)
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چکیده انگلیسی
This paper investigates the accuracy of judgmental forecasting methods for dry bulk freight market. Judgmental forecasting is a method that implements the purely judgmental aspects of a system. The research investigates judgmental forecasting for the Baltic Dry Index, and compares it with statistical extrapolation methods. Post-sample forecasting accuracy indicates the superiority of the proposed approach over the conventional statistical methods. Empirical studies are performed with an expert group and the accuracy of judgmental point estimates is compared with exponential smoothing, the X12 ARIMA, and the TRAMO/SEATS algorithms. The results of expert predictions outperformed traditional time-series methods.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics - Volume 25, Issue 2, December 2009, Pages 189–217
Journal: The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics - Volume 25, Issue 2, December 2009, Pages 189–217
نویسندگان
Okan Duru, Shigeru Yoshida,