Network expansion by a proactive transmission system operator: A case study

• Delays in transmission investments can increase congestion costs.
• Anticipating a transmission upgrade before a generator connects has costs/benefits.
• Case study: real-life transmission project in the North of Italy.
• Anticipation is the efficient choice under several scenarios.

Complex planning procedures often amplify the difference in investment time between generation and transmission. In this work we consider a transmission project in Italy and, relying on a recently proposed methodology, we compare costs and benefits of anticipating the planning process before the connection of new power plants becomes certain. Whereas the system faces lower congestion costs if the network is reinforced immediately, anticipation constitutes a sunk cost in case generation is not built. For realistic load and generation scenarios, anticipation costs, as well as differences in investment times, our results indicate that anticipation is the most efficient choice for a relatively low connection probability. Analyses of this sort are particularly relevant in light of the increasing complexity of public engagement processes and of the remarkable growth in renewable generation.