Uncertainties in smart grids behavior and modeling: What are the risks and vulnerabilities? How to analyze them?

This paper looks into the future world of smart grids from a rather different perspective than usual: that of uncertainties and the related risks and vulnerabilities. An analysis of the foreseen constituents of smart grids and of the technological, operational, economical and policy-driven challenges is carried out to identify and characterize the related uncertainties and associated risks and vulnerabilities. The focus is on the challenges posed to the representation and treatment of uncertainties in the performance assessment of such systems, given their complexity and high-level of integration of novel technologies. A general framework of analysis is proposed.

► We have looked into the development and operation of smart grids for power distribution.
► We have identified a number of uncertainties, which are expected to play an influential role.
► We have provided some guidelines to address these issues, based on probability intervals.