کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
993082 936017 2011 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Industry evolution, rational agents and the transition to sustainable electricity production
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Industry evolution, rational agents and the transition to sustainable electricity production
چکیده انگلیسی

Guiding a transition to low carbon electricity requires a good understanding of the substitution of old by new technologies in the electricity industry. With the aim of explaining historical change from coal to gas in the British electricity industry, we develop a formal model of technological change, where energy technologies diffuse through the construction of new power plants. We considered two model versions: with rational and boundedly rational investors. In each model version, we look at the causal relations between price and output setting mechanisms, fuel and labour use, and investment decisions for different institutional arrangements. We quantify model parameters on data for the United Kingdom. We find that the version of the model with rational investors is capable of replicating well core features of UK electricity history. This includes a rapid diffusion of gas in electricity production, the evolution of the average size of newly installed plants, and a high percentage of electricity sales covered by (forward) contracts-for-difference. In this model setting, nuclear and renewable energies have no chance to diffuse on the market. In the version of the model with boundedly rational investors, nuclear power typically dominates electricity production. We discuss implications of our modelling results for making a transition to low carbon electricity in the future.


► We propose a model of a transition from coal to gas in electricity production.
► Energy technologies diffuse through the construction of new power plants.
► We considered two model versions: with rational and boundedly rational investors.
► We quantify model parameters on data for the UK for the period 1990–2002.
► We draw policy conclusions for guiding a transition to low carbon electricity.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 39, Issue 10, October 2011, Pages 6440–6452
نویسندگان
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