Crude oil import policy of Turkey: Historical analysis of determinants and implications since 1968

Turkey is one of the most energy import dependent countries in the world, suffering deeply from the economic and strategic burdens of oil importation. Our purpose is to determine the factors behind the crude oil import policy of Turkey and to measure their contribution to a well-organized import strategy. We implemented a principle component analysis to construct an Oil Import Vulnerability Index (OIVI) based on four factors, which are crude oil import dependency of primary energy consumption, crude oil import bill as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), non-diversification of import sources, and share of oil in total energy import. The contribution of these factors to the OIVI is found to be approximately equal. While an overall deterioration in the OIVI has been observed during periods of increasing oil prices, better diversification of oil import sources has lead to significant improvements. We suggest Turkish policy-makers implement sound policies, emphasizing diversification of crude oil import sources and reduction of the share of crude oil in primary energy imports to increase energy supply security. This study has also demonstrated that it is possible to construct an index representing crude oil vulnerability caused by import dependency.

Research highlights
► We examine the factors lying behind the crude oil import policy of Turkey.
► We measure the contribution of each factor to a well-organized import strategy.
► We constrtuct an Oil Import Vulnerability Index using principle component analysis.
► We suggest that four factors affect oil import policies with almost equal weights.
► Source diversification is found to be the core issue in oil import policies.