کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
993253 936028 2011 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Oil price, biofuels and food supply
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Oil price, biofuels and food supply
چکیده انگلیسی

The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels, but this issue has yet to be fully investigated in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65% increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4% in 2020 from 2.4% in 2009. If oil prices rise 150% from their 2009 levels by 2020, the resulting penetration of biofuels would be 9%, which is higher than that would be caused by current mandates and targets introduced in more than forty countries around the world. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through the diversion of food commodities and cropland towards the production of biofuels.


► A global CGE model to analyze impacts of oil price on biofuels and food supply.
► Global biofuel penetration increases from 2.4% (2009) to 5.4% (2020) in baseline.
► A 150% rise of oil price boosts biofuels more than current mandates and targets do.
► Biofuels partially offset drops in agricultural outputs caused by oil price rise.
► Biofuels as well as oil price rise negatively affect global food supply.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 39, Issue 12, December 2011, Pages 8098–8105
نویسندگان
, , ,