The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

In order to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM–UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low.

► A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century.
► The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector.
► Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century.
► Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low.
► Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.