Predicting fuel poverty at a small-area level in England

This paper describes the development of a series of models for predicting the incidence of fuel poverty in England at a small-area level and examines the adequacy of the modelled results in informing our understanding of the geography of fuel poverty. This paper summarises the development of alternative approaches to model specification based upon different approaches to the treatment of household income. Since 2003 small-area fuel poverty estimates have been widely used to inform affordable warmth policies and local targeting of fuel poverty programs. Whilst improvements in data sources and methods in recent years provide an opportunity to better understand the spatial distribution of fuel poverty, these analyses suggest that our understanding of the incidence and spatial distribution of fuel poverty is highly sensitive to the way in which household incomes are measured.

► The proposed models estimate fuel poverty incidence at a small-area level.
► This is necessary in order to accurately target local fuel poverty interventions.
► Fuel poverty estimates are highly sensitive to differences in income measurement.
► Fewer children and more pensioners are fuel poor using EHCS income measures.
► More children and fewer pensioners are fuel poor using HBAI income measures.