Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

Integrated assessment models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results of these scenarios are typically presented for a number of world regions and end-use sectors, such as industry, transport, and buildings. Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, however, require more detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. This paper presents sectoral trend for two of the scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions over the past 30 years are examined and contrasted with projections over the next 30 years. Macro-activity indicators are analyzed as well as trends in sectoral energy and carbon demand. This paper also describes a methodology to calculate primary energy and carbon dioxide emissions at the sector level, accounting for the full energy and emissions due to sectoral activities.