Forecasting Empty Container Volumes

The accumulation and repositioning of empty containers have become acute problems for container ports and are expected to intensify in the future given the expected growth in trade imbalances among trading nations. These problems are major costs and operational challenges for container ports. More accurate forecasting of volumes of port empty containers will enable container ports to develop more cost efficient plans for the repositioning of empty containers. This paper compares the Tioga Group, United Nations and Winters method (utilizing empty container volumes of three U.S. container ports) in forecasting volumes of port empty containers. The Winters method is found to provide more accurate forecasts of volumes of port empty containers than the Tioga Group and United Nations methods.