Modelling the impacts of CDM incentives for the Thai electricity sector

The CDM Executive Board recently took a positive decision on programmatic CDM, also known as a CDM Programme of Activities. This prompts the author to present a new tool that has been developed recently for the Thai electricity market. The Renewable Energy Development (RED) Model, initially developed in the framework of the DANIDA funded project: Promotion of Renewable Energy in Thailand (PRET), at the Ministry of Energy of Thailand, was designed for the modelling of different incentive schemes and their effects on the Thai power system for the promotion of renewable energy technologies (RETs). Within this article, an extension of the existing RED model, including the CDM as additional incentive measure, is presented (RED-CDM). Along with the project-based approach, also a sectoral and programmatic approach is included as well. Several scenarios developed with the RED-CDM model show the influence of different incentive mechanisms on the Thai power market and their potentials for reaching the policy targets stated in the Energy Strategy of Thailand for Competitiveness. The main results show that reaching the policy targets is possible, while the price can be extremely high if the targets are to be achieved on schedule. Another important result is that a sectoral CDM approach could help financing about 20% of the incentives needed for a shift towards a more sustainable power grid, if the certified emission reductions (CERs) are sold at a price of 15 Euro/ton.