A quantitative analysis of the European Automakers’ voluntary commitment to reduce CO2 emissions from new passenger cars based on independent experimental data

The reduction of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption from road transportation constitutes an important pillar of the European Union strategy for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. The commitment to reduce passenger car average CO2 emissions at 140 g/km in 2008 signed by European car manufacturers and the European Commission is up to now the most important initiative towards limiting CO2 emissions from road transportation and particularly from passenger cars. Until today, annual reports show the manufacturers’ efforts in limiting CO2 emissions is within the intermediate target set by the commitment and these results are incorporated in emissions estimations and scientific studies. This paper analyses the origin of the progress achieved so far in CO2 emissions and attempts an assessment of the commitment using independent experimental emission data. Additionally, the applicability of the commitment-monitoring data into policy and decision-making tools is being examined. The results indicate that a significant part of the reductions achieved so far is due to a market shift towards diesel vehicle sales and that no reduction factors should be applied yet in CO2 emissions estimation models.