کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
994504 936091 2007 6 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
System dynamics model of Hubbert Peak for China's oil
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
System dynamics model of Hubbert Peak for China's oil
چکیده انگلیسی

 American geophysicist M. King Hubbert in 1956 first introduced a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production for oil of USA. Since then, a fierce debate ensued on the so-called Hubbert Peak, including also its methodology. This paper proposes to use the generic STELLA model to simulate Hubbert Peak, particularly for the Chinese oil production. This model is demonstrated as being robust. We used three scenarios to estimate the Chinese oil peak: according to scenario 1 of this model, the Hubbert Peak for China's crude oil production appears to be in 2019 with a value of 199.5 million tonnes, which is about 1.1 times the 2005 output. Before the peak comes, Chinese oil output will grow by about 1–2% annually, after the peak, however, the output will fall. By 2040, the annual production of Chinese crude oil would be equivalent to the level of 1990. During the coming 20 years, the crude oil demand of China will probably grow at the rate of 2–3% annually, and the gap between domestic supply and total demand may be more than half of this demand.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 35, Issue 4, April 2007, Pages 2281–2286
نویسندگان
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