Advanced biofuels: Future perspectives from an expert elicitation survey

This paper illustrates the main results of an expert elicitation survey on advanced (second and third generation) biofuel technologies. The survey focuses on eliciting probabilistic information on the future costs of advanced biofuels and on the potential role of Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) efforts in reducing these costs and in supporting the deployment of biofuels in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries. Fifteen leading experts from different EU member states provide insights on the future potential of advanced biofuel technologies both in terms of costs and diffusion. This information results in a number of policy recommendations with respect to public RD&D strategies and is an important contribution to the integrated assessment modelling community.

► We collect novel evidence on second and third generation biofuel technologies.
► Demonstration should become a key area of funding.
► Without climate policy (carbon price), by 2030 biofuels will not be cost-competitive.
► The US will first achieve a breakthrough in production costs.
► Biofuels will not exceed 20% of fuels used in the private vehicle market.