Life cycle implication of the potential commercialization of stover-based E85 in China

This article discusses an integrated framework built to compute the cost of stover-based E85, as well as its life cycle energy efficiency and CO2 emission, with consideration of uncertainties of the policy-related factors, in China. Results show that co-product treatment greatly influenced the performance of E85 route. The calculated values of energy efficiency in co-product burning for electricity scenario (the base scenario) and that in co-product for selling scenario (the alternative scenario) are 4.41 and 3.61, respectively. CO2 emission of the stover-based route is 99.7% more than that of the gasoline route in the base scenario and 55.3% less than that of the gasoline in the alternative scenario. The costs of E85 in these two scenarios are 9.78 and 7.76 yuan/L, respectively. Based on the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the article suggests the following: (1) stover-based E85 is currently not competitive in terms of cost; (2) on the current stage, to make E85 competitive, policymakers should be concerned about stimulating processing innovation, providing subsidies on ethanol, feedstock and co-product, as well as raising gasoline price, rather than increasing carbon tax rate/promoting Cleaner Development Mechanism (CDM) projects or influencing consumers’ Willingness to Pay (WTP) for E85.

► A framework to compute stover-based E85 cost, energy efficiency and CO2 emission.
► Performance of stover-based E85 route depends largely on co-product treatment methods.
► Uncertainty of policy related factors is considered when simulating cost of E85.
► Stover-based E85 currently could hardly be competitive with gasoline in cost in China.
► Changes in consumers’ WTP and carbon tax rate have minor influences on the E85 cost.