Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects

In order to cope with climate change, the development and deployment of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs) is becoming more important. In this study, we developed a forecasting model for HFCVs based on the generalized Bass diffusion model and a simulation model using system dynamics. Through the developed model, we could forecast that the saturation of HFCVs in Korea can be moved up 12 years compared with the US. A sensitivity analysis on external variables such as price reduction rates of HFCVs and number of hydrogen refueling stations is also conducted. The results of this study can give insights on the effects of external variables on the market penetration of HFCVs, and the developed model can also be applied to other studies in analyzing the diffusion effects of HFCVs.

► A forecasting model for HFCVs was developed using the generalized Bass diffusion model.
► A simulation model using system dynamics was also developed.
► The empirical study shows that the infrastructure is an important factor to the initial purchase.
► The results of this study can promote research related to the diffusion of innovation.