Conditional inevitability: Expert perceptions of carbon capture and storage uncertainties in the UK context

This paper presents findings on expert perceptions of uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and policy in the UK, through survey data and semi-structured interviews with 19 individual participants. Experts were interviewed in industry, research, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the summer of 2009 and were asked to comment on a range of technical processes as well as policy concerns. The survey revealed that perceptions of the technology conform to a ‘certainty trough’ with users expressing the lowest level of uncertainty, and outsiders expressing the highest level of uncertainty. The interviews revealed that experts express certitude in the prospects for deploying large-scale CCS technology in the UK, all the while questioning several underlying technical and policy premises that are necessary to ensure this goal.

► Expert perceptions of CCS in the UK are reported in interviews and a survey.
► Surveyed perceptions conform to a ‘certainty trough’.
► Experts express certitude in prospect of large-scale CCS deployment in the UK.
► Experts state that several technical and policy premises are necessary to ensure this goal.
► Prospect of large-scale CCS deployment is observed to be highly belief-based.