کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
995130 936168 2010 7 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis—an application to oil prices in the transport sector
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis—an application to oil prices in the transport sector
چکیده انگلیسی

This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account the value of changes in price volatility in real world cost-benefit analyses. Price volatility is an important aspect of security of supply which first of all concerns physical availability, but assuming that consumers are risk averse, security of supply can also be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for instance oil. When the government makes transport-related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport-related examples. They indicate that including the value of changes in price volatility often makes very little difference to the results of cost-benefit analyses, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers’ risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 38, Issue 1, January 2010, Pages 573–579
نویسندگان
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