Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's electricity sector

With the approach of the year 2012, a new round of international negotiations has energized the entire climate change community. With this, analyses on sector-based emissions reduction and mitigation options will provide the necessary information to form the debate. In order to assess the CO2 emissions reduction potential of China's electricity sector, this research employs three scenarios based on the “long-range energy alternative planning system” (LEAP) model to simulate the different development paths in this sector. The baseline scenario, the current policy scenario, and the new policy scenario seek to gradually increase the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement. Results imply that energy consumption and CO2 emission in China's electricity sector will rise rapidly in all scenarios until 2030—triple or quadruple the 2000 level; however, through structural adjustment in China's electricity sector, and through implementing technical mitigation measures, various degrees of abatement can be achieved. These reductions range from 85 to 350 million tons CO2 per year—figures that correspond to different degrees of cost and investment. Demand side management and circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) (ranked in order) are employed prior to use to realize emissions reduction, followed by supercritical plants and the renovation of conventional thermal power plants. In the long term, nuclear and hydropower will play the dominant role in contributing to emissions reduction. It is also suggested that a “self-restraint” reduction commitment should be employed to help contribute to the reduction of emission intensity, an avenue that is more practical for China in light of its current development phase. Setting the year 2000 as the base year, the intensity reduction target could possibly range from 4.2% to 19.4%, dependent on the implementation effectiveness of various mitigation options.