Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach

This paper addresses the challenge of engaging civil society stakeholders in the development process of ambitious mitigation scenarios that are based on formal energy system modeling, allowing for the explicit attachment of normative considerations to technology-focused mitigation options. It presents the definition and model results for a set of mitigation scenarios for Germany that achieve 85% CO2 emission reduction in 2050 relative to 1990. During consecutive dialogues, civil society stakeholders from the transport and electricity sector framed the definition of boundary conditions for the energy-economy model REMIND-D and evaluated the scenarios with regard to plausibility and social acceptance implications. Even though the limited scope of this research impedes inferential conclusions on the German energy transition as a whole, it demonstrates that the technological solutions to the mitigation problem proposed by the model give rise to significant societal and political implications that deem at least as challenging as the mere engineering aspects of innovative technologies. These insights underline the importance of comprehending mitigation of energy-related CO2 emissions as a socio-technical transition embedded in a political context.

► Preferences of German civil society stakeholders are elicited in dialogues.
► Three scenarios represent likely, desirable and controversial key developments.
► A carbon lock-in from freight transport and coal electrification is deemed likely.
► Stakeholders advocate major paradigm shifts for resolving the carbon lock-in.
► Institutional and societal factors are decisive for achieving ambitious mitigation.