کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
995694 1481314 2012 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
On the portents of peak oil (and other indicators of resource scarcity)
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
On the portents of peak oil (and other indicators of resource scarcity)
چکیده انگلیسی

Economists have studied various indicators of resource scarcity but largely ignored the phenomenon of “peaking” due to its connection to non-economic (physical) theories of resource exhaustion. I consider peaking from the economic point of view, where economic forces determine the shape of the equilibrium extraction path. Within that framework, I ask whether the timing of peak production reveals anything useful about scarcity. I find peaking to be an ambiguous indicator. If someone announced the peak would arrive earlier than expected, and you believed them, you would not know whether the news was good or bad. However, I also show that the traditional economic indicators of resource scarcity (price, cost, and rent) fare no better, and argue that previous studies have misconstrued the connection between changes in underlying scarcity and movements in these traditional indicators.


► We ask whether “peak oil” provides a useful economic indicator of scarcity.
► Timing of the peak follows Hotelling's model of inter-temporal equilibrium.
► The peak provides an ambiguous signal.
► Unexpectedly early peaking could be good news or bad.
► The traditional indicators (cost, price, and rent) do not fare much better.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 44, May 2012, Pages 68–78
نویسندگان
,