Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand

The objective of this study is to project transport energy consumption in Thailand for the next 20 years. The study develops log-linear regression models and feed-forward neural network models, using the as independent variables national gross domestic product, population and the numbers of registered vehicles. The models are based on 20-year historical data between years 1989 and 2008, and are used to project the trends in future transport energy consumption for years 2010–2030. The final log-linear models include only gross domestic product, since all independent variables are highly correlated. It was found that the projection results of this study were in the range of 54.84–59.05 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 2.5 times the 2008 consumption. The projected demand is only 61–65% of that predicted in a previous study, which used the LEAP model. This major discrepancy in transport energy demand projections suggests that projects related to this key indicator should take into account alternative projections, because these numbers greatly affect plans, policies and budget allocation for national energy management.

Research highlights
► Thailand transport energy consumption would increase to 54.4-59.1 MTOE in Year 2030.
► The log-linear models yield a slightly higher projection than the ANN models.
► The elasticity of transport energy demand with respect to GDP is 0.995.